Canonical Probability Object
A normalized probability surface aggregated across venues, models, and experts. One coherent belief state.
Docs
Overview
ChanceDB exposes canonical probability surfaces.
Typical workflow: list or fetch a surface, define one when needed, then route changes.
Key Concepts
Point-in-Time Surface State
An immutable read of the surface at a moment in time. Deterministic input for evaluation and execution.
Policy Applied to Change
Thresholds and logic evaluated against surface updates. Triggers agents, webhooks, or downstream systems.
Main flow
One happy path. Copy, paste, done.
Mint a capability JWT
Start with /help and /capabilities, then mint a short-lived JWT for authenticated calls.
GET /help
GET /capabilities
Fetch snapshots
Pull the most recent probability surface by eventKey. Agents consume snapshots, apply rules, and execute from state.
GET /snapshots/latest
Browse live markets
Discover canonical probability surfaces in real time. A lease provides scoped, time-limited access to belief data—designed for agents, expiring by default, never altering the source.
GET /bwaps/leases
Define sources
Align fragmented markets into one canonical event. Match venues, generate an eventKey, or use Studio to compose a unified probability surface.
POST /sources/discover
Get notified
Subscribe with a policy. When the surface crosses your thresholds, a webhook fires. Deterministic triggers. No polling required.
(API coming soon)
API Schema
Machine-readable interface definition for surfaces, snapshots, and routes.
GET https://api.chancedb.com/v1/helpAgents
MCP quickstart, then list surfaces and fetch snapshots.
Point your runtime at the server
https://mcp.chancedb.com/mcp
Auth: capability JWT (preferred) or x402 challenge
List surfaces and fetch snapshots
List leases, pull snapshots, then route changes.
GET /bwaps/leases GET /snapshots/latest?eventKey=...
Get notified
Subscribe with a policy. When the surface crosses your thresholds, a webhook fires. Deterministic triggers. No polling required.
(API coming soon)
SIWE minting flow
Start with /help and /capabilities, then mint a short-lived JWT via the issuer returned in the manifest.
Pricing
Free trials for $SCORES revnet token holders or pay per request via x402 while service is in alpha. ChanceDB token generation event will be announced soon.