What’s the chance of...the away team winning?

Coherent probability surfaces for agents that make trade-off decisions.

Lots of places enable guesses about the same event. They don’t always agree.

ChanceDB combines those predictions into one clean, standard format that machines can read, trust, and act on.

Rules check that surface. Agents act from it.

Explore Surfaces Add MCP to Agent

Alpha previewLive and evolving. APIs may change.

Live surfaces

Discrete events. Continuous ranges. Same canonical surface.

Arsenal vs Tottenham

Terminal Winner · Cross-Venue Surface

View Snapshot

Venue inputs

Polymarket

Home 0.50

Draw 0.22

Away 0.28

Kalshi

Home 0.56

Draw 0.24

Away 0.20

Canonical surface

Home

0.53

Draw

0.23

Away

0.24

Aggregate overround: 1.05

Arbitrage detected: +500 bps

BTC Hits Price · 2026-12-31

Canonical Probability Surface

Polymarket + Kalshi reconciled

View Surface

Venue inputs

Polymarket

Median 92k

Implied skew: positive

Kalshi

Median 98k

Wider upper tail

Continuous probability distribution

Two surface types. One surface architecture.

Discover → Compose → Route

Three steps. One surface.

Discover

Browse surfaces

Find existing surfaces across domains.

Explore Surfaces

Compose

Integrate sources

Combine markets, models, and experts.

Open Studio

Route

Define policy logic

Route surface changes to agents or webhooks.

Open Routing

How it works

Forecast data

Markets · Models · Experts

↓

Surface
Normalized probability · Regime metrics

↓

Policy
Thresholds · Routing logic

↓

Action

Agents · Webhooks · Publications

Relationships

See how outcomes move together

When one thing shifts, what else moves? Model connected scenarios across markets.

Coming soon